Dating the Portuguese business cycle

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lower business R&D spending in Europe), and China’s R&D investment has also now reference to uncertainty as a driver of the business cycle (e.g. in the latest enable individuals to learn about their energy consumption, to date such.

This column reports the nature and the amplitude of economic cycles in the Euro area since , with a focus on the role of financial factors in generating these cycles. Post , December 10, Lower volatility of output tends to imply more stable employment and a reduction in the extent of economic uncertainty confronting households and firms. The reduction in the volatility of output is also closely associated with the fact that recessions have become less frequent and less severe.

Recent events have, however, provided evidence that the cycle is still alive. The economic consequences of the financial crisis in have recently led to revitalize the interest of the study of business cycles, in particular the role of financial markets in generating cycles, which has been so far largely underestimated by the profession. However, most empirical works have so far exclusively focused on the United States [2], to the detriment of European business cycles. A recent CEPII Working Paper [3] fills part of this gap, by examining the amplitude and the nature of European business cycles from to today, and by drawing implications for future monetary policy.

Evidence of changes in volatility As a first step, the paper documents the strong evidence of changes in the amplitude of business cycles over time, by making a distinction between low- and high-volatility regimes [4]. Figure 1 shows that the volatility of output has changed over time, switching between the two regimes. However, it has been moderated since the beginning of the s. The United States has also experienced this downward trend in output volatility, but much earlier, i.

Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: An MS-DFM approach

The business cycle , also known as the economic cycle or trade cycle , is the downward and upward movement of gross domestic product GDP around its long-term growth trend. These fluctuations typically involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth expansions or booms and periods of relative stagnation or decline contractions or recessions. Business cycles are usually measured by considering the growth rate of real gross domestic product.

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How does the Committee Define a Business Cycle? See Methodology. What data does the Committee use? See Data Sources. How is the Committee’s membership determined? The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to your recession dating procedure? As an example, the Committee has identified the period from the first quarter in to the third quarter in as a recession, despite the fact that real GDP was growing in some quarters during that episode and that real GDP was higher at the end of the recession than at the beginning.

As another example, the Committee did not declare a recession for or , even though the data at the time appeared to show a decline in economic activity though not for two quarters. Subsequent data revisions have erased these declines.

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Jeffrey Frankel describes the reasoning for this date. Q2 nowcast from Atlanta Fed is Louis Fed is IHS Markit is Chart of the day! Of course the leaders in the EU are trying while Donald Trump is not.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for to Nov about peak, trough, recession indicators, Euro Area, and Europe. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date on the “growth cycle” approach, where business cycles and turning points are.

This post-recession recovery is commensurate with that of the US recovery, considering it began later, after the double-dip European recession that followed the global financial crisis. Findings here. They reflect data publically available as of 15 September The committee declared that the trough of the recession that started after the Q3 peak has been reached in Q1. The trough signals the end of the second recession witnessed by the euro area after the financial crisis.

Had the improvement in economic activity been more significant, it is likely that the Committee would have declared a trough in the euro area business cycle in early , most likely in Q1. The lack of evidence of sustained improvement of economic activity in the euro area does, however, preclude calling an end to the recession that started after Q3. The Committee convened following positive news stemming from a variety of sources the European Commission, statistical agencies, forecasting institutions, international organizations, NowCasting.

The objective of the meeting was to determine whether there was enough evidence that the decline in economic activity that started after third quarter of had ended.

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investment between the U.S. and an aggregate of Europe, Canada, and Second, the business cycle dating committees, including the NBER Business Cy-​.

Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division. King, Tom Doan, “undated”. Artis, M. Discussion Papers. Sylvia Kaufmann, Hamilton, James D, Chib, Siddhartha, You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item’s handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Markus Knell and Helmut Stix. If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here.

Business Cycle Indicators, June 16, 2020

Identifies what methodologies exist to identify economic turning points in real time and what indicators leading international statistical and economic institutions publish. Contact: Andrew Walton. Release date: 27 April Print this Article.

nent governing European business cycle dynamics, suggesting the existence of a common business cycle; we propose a dating of the business cycle, both for.

This report is also available as a PDF. The chronology identifies the dates of peaks and troughs that frame economic recessions and expansions. A recession is the period between a peak of economic activity and its subsequent trough, or lowest point. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief.

However, the time that it takes for the economy to return to its previous peak level of activity or its previous trend path may be quite extended.

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We analyze whether, and since when, East and West German business cycles are synchronised. We investigate real GDP, unemployment rates and survey data as business cycle indicators and we employ several empirical methods. Overall, we find that the regional business cycles have synchronised over time. GDP-based indicators and survey data show a higher degree of synchronisation than the indicators based on unemployment rates.

However, synchronisation among East and West German business cycles seems to have become weaker again recently.

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This paper extends our previous research on East Asia to the case of 14 European countries from to According to our empirical results, intraindustry trade is again the major channel through which the business cycles of European countries become synchronized. This contrasts with existing studies that found that increased trade itself led to the synchronization of business cycles. Our findings have important implications for the adoption of a currency union, as we expect that the costs of joining a currency union will diminish significantly only when intraindustry trade becomes dominant.

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business cycles, economy, expansion, contraction

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